Earlier this month, Hidden Gems released their 2020 Book Sales Survey, which should be of interest to anyone in the self-publishing arena right now—and it’s an interesting time to be in this arena.
If you’re not familiar with Hidden Gems Books, they’re a writers’ service geared toward those going the independent route. Originally they worked with romance authors, and over the years opened their doors to writers of other genres. Their primary service is distributing ARCs (Advance Reading Copy) to willing and eager readers, as well a beta reading program, editing, and so on.
Last year, Hidden Gems sent out a survey to the authors on their mailing list asking them about book sales and future plans. The full report is here. I’ve broken down what I think are the key points.
The writers
First, regarding the responding authors:
Over half of the respondents write romance fiction. In some ways, that strengthens the value of the poll, because romance outsells all other fiction left and right. But, it’s obviously a niche in the market.
Almost 90% have published more than two books. This is also important, as it smoothes out the usual dips and peaks in sales numbers a single book goes through.
Every respondent sells their books on Amazon. That’s no surprise. The percentage selling books on the next three competitors—B&N, Kobo, Apple—was below 50%. Going wide is still not a given for these authors.
Sixty percent reported earning less than $500/month on their books, with ten percent reporting earning more than $5,000/month. (Again: romance.)
But: It’s a small sample size. Out of 4,000 writers polled on the Hidden Gems mailing list, only 78 filled-out the survey. That doesn’t mean the results should be discarded, but 2% of an already limited pool means it’s difficult to draw broad conclusions.
The sales
In April 2020, at the start of the pandemic, Hidden Gems sent a separate, short survey to its authors. Seventy-three percent of the 95 authors polled reported their sales had gone up or stayed the same since the pandemic started. “It was actually looking like authors were one of the few professions that might actually benefit from a world forced to lock themselves at home with nothing to do but read.“ This jump was not merely seen by Hidden Gems authors: NPD reported that April 2020 saw a 39% increase in ebook sales, the first full month of the lockdowns.
Where the Hidden Gems report takes a turn is when the later survey asked about summer sales. Fifty-one percent reported a decrease in their summer sales.
By itself, this isn’t as alarming as it first looks. Every summer, writers see a dip in sales. As Hidden Gems mentions:
Authors often talk about a summer slump, where book sales trend downward in months when readers are spending more time outdoors and with families home from school.
But 2020 was not a normal year—quite the opposite.
In response to the sales dip, many authors increased advertising and promotions, to mixed results. About 60% saw sales stay flat or continue to decline with increased promotion. That’s bad news. After the summer months, about 80% of respondents continued to see sales stay level or decline.
Normally, when school starts, book sales rise. Some years I’ve even seen a dramatic and welcome uptick in September. But not in 2020, and the Hidden Gems authors reported much the same.
Unfortunately, although the report attempts to correlate between author earnings and increasing/decreasing sales, the number of authors in the income ranges is so slim, it’s difficult to trust the derived numbers as indicative of larger trends.
Conclusions
I do think this survey has value for self-published writers, but because of the low sample size, I don’t think writers should gaze too deeply into the numbers and charts.
The editors at Hidden Gems do make a solid point in their “Wrapup and Analysis” section that’s easily overlooked. The pandemic hit lots of people in the pocketbook (leading to fewer sales of not-absolutely-essentials, like books), and school closings seem to have led to fewer autumn book sales (which would explain why the September bump didn’t happen). Still, Hidden Gems reported they had fewer readers last year requesting to review ARC copies—that is, fewer readers accepting free e-books:
I have a feeling that people are just mentally exhausted. …
Every time we turned on the news it seemed like there was some new catastrophe, something else to lose sleep over. With so much distraction going on in the world, with so much to think about, worry about and stress over, is it any wonder that at the end of the day, most people may just want to “turn off their brains”?
If people didn’t want to turn off their brains, perhaps they resisted turning away from the real-life horrors and dramatic events and losing themselves in fictional worlds. Both are understandable reasons.
Other reports show that e-book lending went up, with one source indicating the Los Angeles Public Library e-book circulation rose from 2.7 million to 3.9 million last year. That doesn’t necessarily mean total book loans rose, though—only that, in a months-long quarantine, e-books suddenly take on a new relevance.
And the Hidden Gems report is contrary to the overall publishing industry, which posted strong print book sales last year. But, the details of those sales are important. This biggest print book gains were in nonfiction (which Hidden Gem authors don’t write, by and large), YA (one of the smallest segments in the Hidden Gems’ survey), and juvenile (all-but-absent in the Hidden Gems survey).
Since I’m a fiction writer, I’m most interested in the field and its genres. Many of the gains the publishing industry made last year were in nonfiction. Written Word Media—the Bargain Booksy people—reported cookbooks and travel books were their biggest sellers last year. They too reported a dip in sales after the second quarter. And, they noted that Amazon’s Kindle Unlimited Global Fund grew significantly in 2020, indicating an increase in membership, which would mean a drop in sales as new members rent books rather than buy.
Overall, I noticed when parsing the various reports of good news in the publishing industry for 2020, the picture is less rosy for writers of adult fiction.
What do I make of all this?
I still maintain this is a great time to be an independent author. And I refuse to believe books (paper or digital) are going to be replaced wholesale by streaming services like Netflix or Peacock.
Once the vaccines are distributed and life begins to return to a semblance of normal, I’m confident we’ll see people return to books, both digital and paper.
And, if this last year has taught us anything, it’s that e-books are not a fad or only for Internet obsessives. The voracious readers who did read while sheltering-in-place were well-served by digital distribution.
Ray Bradbury at 100
Two weeks after I wrote “Ray Bradbury on getting stories published”, Los Angeles Review of Books released a centennial retrospective on Bradbury in the form of a conversation between Sam Weller and Dana Gioia on the writer’s legacy.
Gioia when asked for a Bradbury favorite:
Not a single work but a favorite form — the short story. That is where his talents burned most brightly.
This echoes what I wrote earlier, that Bradbury was an incredibly prolific writer who never abandoned the short story form, and even capitalized on his bounty by repurposing them into books now regarded as classics. The entire conversation is a fascinating and engaging read.
Once you’ve finished reading it, do yourself a favor and borrow, buy, lend, or steal a Bradbury book. The Martian Chronicles remains my favorite since I read it as a young child.
In My Memory Locked is a detective story set in near-future San Francisco. It’s a world of computer viruses attacking the subconscious, specialized neuroliquers washing away bad memories, and a worldwide social network wired into everyone’s head.
Fans of Dashiell Hammett, William Gibson, and Philip K. Dick will find a familiarity with this story. Fans of mystery novels will find plenty in it for them as well.
Available now for Kindle and in paperback. More information can be found at j-nelson.net